Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
Quite a Day
The ease with which the S&P Futures and the Spiders took out their pinpoints this morning should serve notice to short-sellers that there is a very good possibility we will be pushing higher for the time being.
This doesn't mean we won't see a pullback.
What it does mean is if you're a bear, be careful.
You might also want to be careful if you're a bull.
S&P Futures
SPY
SPY Three Year
Thursday, February 3, 2011
E-Mini S&P
The first two charts are ancillaries of the third chart: a series of patterns within patterns.
Short-Term Pattern
Assuming today's short-term Fibonacci Retracement holds (and technical analysis is based on assumptions, after all), the next target is 1314.75.
Intermediate Pattern
If the short-term Fib holds, and (once again) assuming we reach the target of the short-term pattern, we will have surpassed the mid-point pivot on the intermediate chart, which puts 1335.25 into play.
Long-Term Pattern
And this is where patterns collide. A push through the short-term pattern theoretically means a push through the intermediate pattern which theoretically means a push through to the long-term pattern.
However, we also have to at least consider the Fibonacci Retracements of the latter two patterns. All we have had here is a retracement based on one short-term impulse leg. Just because we bounced off it doesn't mean it's written in stone we won't pull back through it and head for a Fibonacci Retracement on the intermediate pattern or the long-term pattern.
HFT trading programs (especially the ones owned by the big banks) have been set up to create not only volatility, but also patterns. How many failed flags, pennants, wedges, head and shoulders or breakouts do we need to see before we finally clue in that that these patterns have been created by those programming the trading bots?
Volatility is the name of the game and short-term traders are the target. Don't think for one second that those programming HFT's don't know where your pain threshold is. They do, they program it, and reap the rewards.
Stick with your plan and let the HFT bots fight amongst themselves for one penny scalps and our table scraps.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
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