Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
ES is Looking Weak Sunday Night
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Peter Gabriel - Digging In The Dirt (1992)
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
GDX vs SPY
Price pinning? Ohhhhh, of course not.
Ten Day, Thirty Minute
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Sunday, May 16th
Several charts for tonight. The markets "look" lower, but the ES has found some support. Silver and gold are lower at 00:52 EST.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Silver Futures May 10th (Evening)
Silver looks like it's headed for $40.13 some time in the next several hours.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Saturday, May 7, 2011
GDX: Another Look
Admittedly, I was a little hard on our good friend, GDX, a couple of commentaries ago. Still, one has to question why it's really not lived up to our grandiose expectations over the past three years.
Haven't we been told gold's going to the stratosphere?
So, what's up, or in the case of GDX, down?
Why is it so tied into the performance of the markets, when gold is making new highs? Will it ever again leave the S&P 500 in the dust like it did back in the earlier part of the decade, and if so, when?
The fact is, the performance of the GDX, aside from a few twists and turns here and there, has been far more closely tied to the market's performance than most gold bulls would care to admit.
Things can and do change, however. Until then, though, there are charts and we're looking for a bottom.
One such possibility exists in the following chart:
Left click on chart(s) to expand
Of concern here is simply the number of times the 200 DMA has continued to rescue the GDX. One would have to think the 200 DMA will finally give way and threaten much lower prices. Nevertheless, there is an ABC pattern that could bottom (in the chart above) and lift the GDX upwards into areas we've been expecting long before now.
If the GDX manages to hold the D target on the 30 minute chart and rebounds, the daily chart shows an ABC pattern that could take the GDX to as much as $70.87
If however, the GDX surpasses the "C" in the chart below, you can probably kiss it goodbye.
The weekly is even more optimistic. Below is a chart I have featured on more than one occasion, but I'll show it again, one more time.
The question is whether or not GDX can withstand another stock market bear storm.
Technically, I doubt it.
Fundamentally, I will leave that decision to you.
Copper Lines Take on Gold and Silver
Silver certainly got its Bollinger Band shakedown last week. From one extreme to the other. It is unfortunate when people are lured by greed into buying at highs expecting a parabolic run to continue. There are enough guilty parties out there contributing to the hysteria, of course, showering us with promises of $5,000 gold and $200 silver. Perhaps that will all come to fruition, but for now, there are a lot of disillusioned investors who bought into hollow predictions that gold and silver had plenty of rocket fuel behind them, readying to propel the two precious metals to the moon without fear of a pullback.
Whenever there's a take down like this, the people responsible for making these giddy-brained forecasts always have a built-in excuse if things don't pan out: Big Brother Intervention. It's up to you whether or not you wish to buy into such claims. I have my doubts it will get you any further ahead as either an investor or trader, however.
There were other warning signs of a pullback aside from over-enthusiastic news letters, gushing websites, Bollinger Bands bursting at the seams and overbought stochastics.
Copper, for example, has been trending downward since mid-February, and it had been leading silver and gold for some time. The three metals essentially converged in April, just as copper was struggling to stay above its 50 DMA. Since then, copper has fallen all the way to - and slightly through - its 200 DMA, but has been rescued by a trend line. There's an ABC pattern as well, suggesting copper may have found a temporary bottom. Copper's activity in this area might be important where gold and silver are concerned.
Copper ABC Pattern
Copper vs Gold and Silver
Copper Lines
Copper Bollinger Bands
As for silver, it climbed back inside the lower point of the Bollinger Bands. It breached the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement, but managed to makes its way back to this psychologically important level.
There may be some more downside; however, Friday's activity was encouraging and the bulls finally started to fight back. A strong bounce in gold yesterday should also help silver's cause.
Silver Bollinger Bands
Silver Fibonnaci's
Gold Bollinger Bands
Oil (iPath)
Gold and silver weren't the only commodities hammered down ruthlessly last week, it just seems like it.
Oil was also hit hard. No offense to longs, but the last thing we need at this stage of the game is parabolic oil prices; nevertheless, oil could regain traction and rebound, and there are two targets to watch in the charts below.
If the Oil ETF falls somewhere to the $24.19 area, it's a place to try bottom-fishing with a tight stop. There is no point getting stubborn if a bounce fails there, as any significant pierce of that level will likely see a further slide, to as much as $21.53.
People were buying dips the last time oil went on a tear and by the time the dust settled, a lot of traders were left holding the bag.
Oil ETF (iPath)
Friday, May 6, 2011
GDX A Huge Disappointment
If you are like many others, and were somehow persuaded into investing a lot of your hard-earned money into GDX three years ago, you are worth less money today than when you first bought it. The GDX (Big Gold) closed this week below the high it set in 2008.
How's that for performance?
GDX (Four Year)
In fact, GDX hasn't even kept up with JPM since the rally began, just to add insult to injury to precious metal bulls looking to teach this US bank - with strong ties to both the Fed and the US Government - a lesson.
Dream on.
GDX vs JPM
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Has Silver's Pullback Ended or Just Begun?
Let's take a look at silver via SLV on an intra-day time frame.
The extent of the breakdown caught a lot of people off-guard (breakdowns generally do catch late arrivals to the party by surprise), but how often do we ever see a parabolic run like the one silver has had carry on without first suffering a violent reversal?
SLV Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands
The next chart is physical silver, but as so many people have been shut out from trading it due to increases in margin, I will tend to focus more on SLV from this point forward. The two (SLV and physical silver) trade in relative harmoney, though the numbers of each don't match up exactly. As well, physical silver trades more hours in a day and this can throw patterns on SLV off somewhat.
Silver Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands
Physical Silver and SLV
Silver has been on an amazing run and to those who point fingers at bankers and government propaganda for this latest setback, I have one question:
Why would these people have let silver go on a parabolic run like this in the first place, if they can take something down so effortlessly?
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Hecla Mining Company
Trend line and 200 DMA need to hold.
Six Month Silver Chart
A pullback to the trend line and a pierce of the mid point inside the Bollinger Band may be enough to get silver bulls back on track today.
Left click on chart to expand
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Silver Bull Unrealistic Over Two Day Pullback
Apparently, silver was supposed to continue its parabolic climb unopposed.
That's certainly the message at least one commentator is delivering now that silver has sold off for two whole days. This horrific sell-off, according to Jeff Nielsen of Bullion Bulls Canada, is all manipulation at the hands of the big US banks, with a little propaganda help from the US government after you-know-who was reported killed on Sunday.
Jeff Nielsen is a good writer who, unfortunately, is always looking for a "Darth Vader dark side" conspiracy any time precious metals don't do exactly what he thinks they should be doing. Here is his latest commentary:
Technicals and simple profit-taking couldn't possibly have had anything to do with silver's latest pullback. No! It had to be an orchestrated effort between big brother propaganda and big bank price manipulation. Silver, after all, is supposed to go straight up. If it doesn't, well ..... it just has to be anything other than profit-taking and a ridiculously over-extended chart.
We're all entitled to our opinions and as far as I'm concerned, this was nothing more than a technical takedown. People take profits, and that's the long and short of it.
Silver vs the S&P500
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