The Spiders June 29th

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Spiders

 Volatility has been increasing over the last month. The cowboys trading the overnight futures market (with some timely assistance from the programmed HFT bots that have the ability to place an order and pull it in the blink of an eye) have taken the market by storm, turning every single day into a game of "stock market chicken." 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Flawed Analysis on Apple

 Last week's analysis on AAPL was faulty, especially given the timeframe. Going back to March of 2009, AAPL has indeed out-performed the Q's, as the chart below clearly illustrates.

 Looking back over the last year, however, AAPL has not been able to break away from the Q's with any significance, despite its being one of the most profitable companies (if not the most profitable company) in the US.

 How is this possible? Have ETF's and mutual funds levelled the playing field to such an extent that even a great company like Apple can't break free from what is probably the most generic market the world has ever seen? What will happen to AAPL if we get the collapse that so many have been predicting?

 

 Apple may be an alpha company but the stock certainly isn't performing like one, at least not in the last year. It wouldn't be out of line to predict that if the markets crash, AAPL will go along for the ride.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

GDX Fails to Impress

 Almost three years later, GDX has done nothing. 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Apple Inc (AAPL) Nothing More than an ETF

 What's the point in investing in AAPL when it can't out-perform a pile of under-achieving (and unprofitable) stocks that make up the Q's?

 The stock market has been kidnapped by ETF's. Don't pay the ransom!



AAPL vs the Q's

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Charts for Sunday, June 19th

 As is often the case, the stock market bears jump on the bandwagon well after the fact; nevertheless, there are some technical reasons that would suggest we are in for more downward activity. This is a wait-and-see situation as far as I am concerned.

 The VIX is coming into resistance and the SPY into support. For all the bearish sentiment out there, we should take notice that we are still above the lows set in March. As well, the S&P 500 has managed to stay inside the outer band of the moving average envelope (second chart). A breakdown there and the situation will have to be re-assessed, though a trend line would provide some support.

 

 The resource-dependent TSX has also faltered, but when comparing that to the US S&P 500 (an index top-heavy in completely unprofitable US banks), it leaves one to wonder why.

 The Canadian venture has also weakened, and the "bingo" money in search of the ever-elusive home run seems to have dried up. When money leaves the juniors, it is often a harbinger to weakness in the overall health of the markets at large.

 Physical gold remains as one of the few healthy sectors.

 The same cannot be said about gold stocks, however. The US GDX (a basket of blue chip gold exploration companies) continues to shadow the market's performance.

 Silver and silver stocks continue to be extremely volatile. 

  Perhaps an indication of the power of all the ETF's in the investment world ..... US housing remains afloat, despite the fact there are close to 20 million vacant homes (more than half the total population of Canada) in the US.

 The US Dollar

 And once again, I am left to remind people about the evils of "juiced" ETF's. HGU.TO (a double ETF that trades gold stocks) continues to lose ground to GDX (a one-to-one ETF). If you don't have the time to monitor stocks on a daily basis, juiced ETF's are not for you. 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Research in Motion (RIMM)

 The pain may not be over for shareholders of Research in Motion. RIMM actually surpassed its 2009 bear market low on Friday and the long-term pattern would actually take the stock into negative numbers if that were possible. 

 The lesser pattern is more optimistic, however, and worth a bottom-fishing attempt at $25, on a tight stop. 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Percentage of Stocks Trading Above the 50 Day Moving Average

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

One Year Performance: SPY vs Gold and Silver Stocks

 Say what you will. The bottom line is the bottom line, and precious metal stocks are simply not keeping up with the  S&P 500.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

GDX

GDX looks bound for the D target, after failing to hold its pivot at $53.62 on Wednesday. Friday's activity confirmed the bearish outlook.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.