Stock Market Bears Fall Prey to Propaganda

 Many technical analysts continue to call for a quick and painful pullback in the stock market ... perhaps they are so busy reading news on the internet that it is getting in the way of their technicals? 

  

 Here are two well-known and worthy analysts - both of whom, apparently, are bearish on everything except the US dollar. While I dispute their analysis I would encourage you to click on the links and read what the writers have to say. 

Auerbach and Grayson

Clive Maund

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 What you are about to read going forward could be both fundamentally and technically wrong .... you've been provided with alternative arguments by two respected technical analysts who are often paid for their advice. The advice here is free. When all else fails, you might want to consider seeking the counsel of those who are paid to offer it; however, it is still your responsibilty to read the caveats at the bottom of all commentaries, including this one.

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 The markets are forward-thinking. What is happening inside Europe right now has already been taken into account by the Wizards of Wall Street. That's what wizards do. They know more than the rest of us. It's their job. Wall Street doesn't read news clippings, they write them.

Who's writing the "news?"

 If we are to assume the big players in the world's financial capital are blissfully unaware of what's going on outside the friendly confines of Lower Manhatten (I can assure you they aren't), then the analysts in the links provided above certainly have an argument. So, where is the panic? Where is the sell-off we have been warned of for months on end?

 Wall Street is not blissfully unaware of anything. Wall street creates direction, they don't chase after it, unlike the throngs of easily influenced bears who are so caught up reading yesterday's news that their analysis has been corrupted by .... well, yesterday's news.

 Here's a piece of advice: Wall Street has never once taken, "A random walk down Wall Street." 

 Most bears and gold bugs quite willingly acknowledge that this is the age of propaganda, yet would never even consider they've been out-propaganda'd by propaganda.

 Here are some questions for those of you so caught up reading these anti-propaganda sites complaining about Big Brother propaganda ...

 Have any of these anti-propaganda sites made you any real money?

 Have any of these sites ever steered you in the wrong direction?

 Did these sites encourage you to short the market rather than buy it? 

 Big Brother works in strange and mysterious ways.

 Give it some thought.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Dow Could Break to Rally Highs

 The Indoos broke through resistance today, which could quite possibly set the stage for more upside in the next few weeks. This isn't a guarantee, obviously, as volatility remains high and will likely stay that way for some time; nevertheless, it can't help but build a case that technical analysis and the media simply do not mix.


 People seem to be the most bearish (or bullish) right at key turning points in the market, and the bearish side of sentiment was clearly winning the last couple of weeks.


 That's as good a reason the markets rallied this week as any.


 Here's a suggestion: subscribe to as many free sites offering market analysis as you can find, and simply do the opposite of what the majority of them are telling you to do.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold: It Wasn't Supposed to Turn Out this Way

 A picture (or in this case, a chart) paints a thousand words.

 We could have just bought the S & P 500 and really been no further behind vs putting our money into gold. To add insult to injury, the commissions would have been a whole lot less buying the market.

 Left click on chart(s) to expand

 Gold stocks? They've dropped the ball and are losing the race.

 Of course, things can change.

 The problem is that ordinary people really don't want to be coerced into buying anything, a lesson goldbugs haven't quite figured out.

 Change the delivery and change the results.

 The goldbug rants are quite obviously not working.

 The charts speak for themselves.

 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Impossible!

 If bears think they are going to get wealthy shorting in this market, they ought to think twice.

 Who are they reading and why?

 Naive perma bears have been drooling lately like a pack of Pavlov's dogs, anticipating a road to easy riches based on a market meltdown similar to the 2008-2009 Teddy Bears' Picnic.

 Then we get word of the perfect ETF for Armageddon from John Nyaradi.

 Perfect, all right. An ETF designed to do nothing more than separate people from their money, something to which Mr Nyaradi obviously gave very little thought when he wrote about "global upheaval."

 What does, "global upheaval" mean?

 Try multiplying the comments Ann Barnhardt made about the recent MF Global debacle by a thousand and figure it out for yourself.

 Better yet, doomsayers should research the definition of, "Armageddon," and see what they come up with.

 If financial Armageddon were to strike the markets, bears might as well kiss all the money they thought they'd be making on an ETF designed for such an event, goodbye. They'll never see so much as a dime of it, as banks, hedgies, pension funds and governments hopelessly try to unravel trillions of dollars floating around in cyber space, all inter-connected to trillions more dollars floating around in cyber space. 

 Are bears really that stupid?

 Ann Barnhardt may understand the consequences, but it's doubtful she's relishing the thought of monetary collapse, unlike far too many perma bear Armageddonites.

 In the meantime, as difficult as it may be for those bears eagerly awaiting chaos in the streets, no food on the shelves at the grocery store, and no banks to contend with .....

 Here's a chart.

 Perma bears can go right ahead and say it's impossible.

 They've been saying, "Impossible," for years now.

 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Too Many Bears

 It is not always prudent to go against the flow. It becomes especially difficult when media outlets (owned by the same conglomerates that program HFT's, for those of you who weren't aware) are telling us that the markets are not only going to tank, they are going to tank HUGE!

 If that weren't bad enough, we get a million and one bloggers all telling us the same thing. Everyone is an expert on the economy and technical analysis these days.

 Really?

 How's that worked out for all the "experts" in the last thirty three months?

 Is this "market" really about descending triangles, bearish wedges, rounding tops, head and shoulders patterns, 200 day moving averages, and broken trend lines?

 We're going to use the blatantly obvious against a gang of Wall Streeters that wrote the book on market direction?

 Much of what we've learned about technical analysis has gone the way of the dinosaur. It no longer applies. Why would it and why should it?

 Wall Street looks at the same charts we do, but they're not in business to make our lives easy by chasing garden variety technical analysis. They're in business to get as many people on the wrong side of a trade as humanly possible. They do this by manipulating charts and the news.

 How hard can it be for Wall Street to manipulate a chart when their algorithm trading platforms have the ability to pull bids or offers in a nanosecond, taking out any and all automated stops along the way?

 Yes, we're told it's all about Europe and the Euro.

 Perhaps it is.

 It says here it's all about the media, the internet, and the people who read exactly what Wall Street wants people to read.

 Believe what you want and trade accordingly.

 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Analysts Calling for Severe Decline

 Market analysts are once again telling us gold, silver and the stock market are doomed.

 Before selling your precious metals and every stock you own and betting heavily on a bearish ETF, you might want to check the track records of these individuals.

 Most of them have probably been wrong for two years running.

 Yes, the markets and precious metals could very well fall off the cliff.

 Then again .....



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold Loses 200 Day Moving Average

 For the first time since early 2009, Gold is trading below the 200 day moving average.

 A shakedown?

 Probably.

 Guess who owns 99% of all the gold?

 If you said, "The one percent," you have pretty much figured out everything you will ever need to know about gold.

 PS: The one percent really don't care if gold trades at $3,000 an ounce or $1,000.

 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Dow

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Dow managed to recapture the 50 DMA today; however, it failed to hold the January 3rd opening, which would have put the Indoos back into positive territory - albeit marginal - for the year.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Turn off the Noise

 There seems to be plenty to worry about, doesn't there?

 Gold has postponed its meteoric rise, silver is close to breaking down, the stocks within these two commodities are getting hammered, and then there's the stock market in general.

 After an October like the one we had, could we really expect that there wouldn't be a pullback?

 That is unrealistic thinking.

 Pullbacks are often severe, and the spin doctors will do whatever they can to separate you from what is rightfully yours.

 .

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Double Standards

 How does a 4.17 % drop in November highs in one thing equate to a screaming buy while a 4.68 % drop in another equate to a screaming sell?

 Simple: The former is gold, the latter is the S&P 500.

 And gold should never fall in price nor have profit takers according to goldbugs ....  and the stock market should ... well ........... the stock market should simply NEVER go up, according to these same people.

 The stock market is there to short, that's it and that's all. That's what we're told to believe by those holding gold.

 We're not hearing much in the way of shorting gold stocks, which are down 9.8% from their November highs, by the way.

 Perhaps there's a lesson to be learned here ....

 It's best left up to you in deciding what that lesson is.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Parachute

 Many have been calling for the market's head over the past couple of weeks (did I say weeks, I meant months ... or is that years?) and it's not that difficult to get caught up in all the bearish sentiment we are inundated with each and every day. It's there when we wake up to the alarm clock radio; it's there when we log onto Bloomberg's before the trading day begins; it's there in our trading chat rooms; in the newspaper; the evening news; our emails; the blogs we read ..... it's everywhere!

 What has become apparent is that investors are not the only people caught up in "herd mentality." Those of us writing about the markets on a day-to-day basis are also guilty of it, and we are the ones who should be digging deeper and looking for reasons why the herd might be wrong.

 That said, it's so much easier being part of a group of people who have essentially come to the same conclusion, than it is to say, "Wait a minute! Maybe we're missing something!"

 Of course, if everyone else is dancing to the same drummer, then we are only guilty by association.

 "So ... take me to court! The caveat was right there in the fine print (didn't you read it?), which simply states, 'I might be wrong.'"

 "And besides, there's a good chance much of the analysis I presented to you was generated elsewhere (by some other unoriginal writers/analysts aside from me who couldn't think for themselves, either), and even if  what I said came across to you as my very own ideas ..... I am ONLY one small member of the herd."

 And the crowd becomes the parachute.

 Saved by consensus (and a caveat, which, by the way, you can read at the end of this commentary).

 Here's a chart, take it for whatever you think it's worth, and factor in the time constraints while you're at it. 

 

 We've been doubting Mr. Market for four years now, and he's continually proven us wrong.

 When we start to think he's right ...........

 That's when he'll be wrong. 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Time to Follow the Crowd?

 How many bearish emails can a person withstand in one week?

 Four? Five?

 How about fifteen!

 No one is giving the market any credit these days.

 Perhaps the bears are right.

 The markets have been under the control of three weekly candles (numbered on left hand side of chart) and a gap since September of last year.

 Consensus?

 Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Death Cross on $XAU

 A death cross (50 DMA crosses down over 200 DMA) developed on the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) late in September. The last time this took place was in 2008 and the results were disastrous for precious metals.

 Of course, it's only one indicator and there have been some significant rebounds when the RSI crossed below 30; nevertheless, one of the RSI's worst failures to provide a timely buy signal took place the last time we saw the death cross.

 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Indoos Stall Market's Advance

 The late day rally on Friday came to an abrupt halt when traders decided the Dow Jones was getting just a little too close to recapturing the 50 day moving average. The sell-off on the Dow Jones left the SPX and the Q's running for cover, also, even though the Q's are trading above their 50 DMA (lower half of the chart, below).

 Left click on chart(s) to expand.

 And this automated and sadly generic market (made up of HFT's and ETF's), strikes again. 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The US Dollar Looks Good (On Paper)

 A funny thing happened while gold was on its merry way to $2,000.

 It dumped.

 Which is a convenient way of saying the powers-that-be are still a force to be reckoned with.

 This latest setback in precious metals means that - believe it or not - the S&P 500 has actually out-performed physical gold since March, 2009.

  

 

SPY vs Gold

 Where gold stocks are concerned, it's close enough to equal to call the comparison between SPY and GDX, "on par."

SPY vs GDX

 GDX was rescued by a trend line on Friday, but the bearish wedge that's almost three years in the making is staring gold bulls straight in the face. When the assault started on gold stocks in 2008, never once did the GDX venture this far outside the Bollinger Bands.

GDX

 The comparisons between SPY and the GDX have to be given serious consideration here. When the markets initially topped in 2007, the GDX ignored the warning signs as precious metals bulls - convinced the world as we know it was doomed - continued to drive up the prices of gold stocks. Five months later, gold stocks topped, and when the dust settled, the GDX had lost more, on a percentage basis, than the S&P 500. A lot more.

 And here we are ........

 Not quite four years later, but the comparisons are ominous. The S&P 500 topped almost five months ago and gold bugs once again didn't heed the warning signs .... and we've just suffered through a similar drop in gold stocks vs what took place in 2008.

SPY vs GDX Five Year Weekly

 What's that mean, exactly?

 It means that since March of 2008, anyone invested in GDX has made no headway .... Friday's close was within pennies of the highs reached in 2008.

 Well, "no headway" isn't exactly correct .....

 You see, if you had bought GDX at the top in 2008 (and many a fool did), you'd have done so when the US dollar was at historical lows. So, if you've hung on through all of this, you can actually thank the US currency because your GDX would have made absolutely no gain except for the recent rise in the dollar.

 Go figure.

GDX and the US Dollar

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Markets Recover

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Week Begins with Huge Gap Down

 We would likely have to go back quite a while to find the last time the Futures gapped down 16.50 points to start the day's proceedings. It looks as though the dollar, precious metals and the markets are going to combine to create a whirlwind of reckless directional movement over the next while.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The US Dollar Extends its Middle Finger

 As strange as it may seem to gold bulls and the anti-dollar brigade, there is the possibility we just got one big, "SCREW YOU!" from the US Dollar.

 It's too early to tell, really, as this isn't the first time the dollar has confronted us with an ostentatious display of force over the past thirty months. Still, it may be a good time for bulls to fall back, regroup, and dig some trenches.

 Volatility bombs will surely fly in the coming months.

 Those fortunate enough to have sat out during the "trading wars" from three years ago are going to get a lesson in patience and perseverance.  

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

GDX

 The pattern posted for the GDX on September 6th remains valid, though anyone continuing to hold should be cognizant of what's been happening with the US dollar and the adverse effects this could have not only on the overall strength of the stock market, but also gold stocks. The GDX has risen substantially from the lows it printed in early August and it may not be a bad idea to lock in some profits.

 The GDX continues to out-perform the markets-at-large; nevertheless, the GDX can still look great against the S&P 500 even if both fall further from here. All that's required is that the GDX falls less. That may be a moral victory, but it won't be a financially profitable decision if such an event takes place.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The S&P 500

 The S&P Futures managed to rebound slightly after spending the majority of the day on a steep downward trajectory. The reversal did manage to set up a bullish impulse leg on the five minute chart, but with the way the markets are trading (volatility courtesy of your friendly neighbourhood HFT programmers) anything is possible. 

 Aside from a reversal at the pattern's midpoint on the five minute chart, a trend line from the August 9th lows on both the SPY and SPX also provided some timely support.

 The Spiders will need more than a bullish impulse leg on the five minute chart to regain positive momentum. The daily chart is threatening the midpoint on the daily pattern ... still well above the $111.25 outlined as "P," but coupled with a bearish flag, the bulls have a lot of work ahead of them to get the S&P 500 back on track. Any serious breach of the midpoint will likely be followed by another wave of selling.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Copper

 Copper is weakening and close to breaking down outside a bearish flag.

 While gold managed to break well above an upper trend line, copper failed at that point and is once again making its way back to the lower line of a bearish wedge.



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Crashing Wall Street's Party

 Every now and again world events transpire (call it what you will) that send most methods of technical analysis back to the drawing board.

 
 How does the US Dollar rise over a two day period when the markets have risen? This generally gets catagorized into the TA's many caveats as the good old "exception-to-the-rule" clause ... or as we like to say:

 
 Always perform your own due diligence.

 
 We now live in a world where bad news is good and good news is bad. The spin doctors (something we commoner day traders are forced to deal with on an almost daily basis) have seen to it with each and every shift in the market place.

 Yesterday, for example, one might have thought the markets were finally (finally!) on their descending journey to hell, especially when considering the gap down "the boyz" magically performed Monday evening on the futures markets. The bulls who trade on margin may have been scared out of their collective drawers yesterday morning and covered, only to find there was a "do over" in progress as the day wore on.

 Alternatively, those bears looking to climb aboard the "short-the-market" train were handed a similar result and the bottom line was this:

 Wall Street 10, Traders 0.

 It was a route! The Boyz of Wall Street, fully equipped with their emotionless, algorythm trading programs (not to forget a little insider help from the powers-that-be ...... who are we kidding?) saw to that.

 Well, kids ...... chalk it up to, "Takin' care of business."

 We may not be invited to Wall Street's disgustingly lavish events, but we can always crash their parties.





 Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

GDX September 6th

 The GDX slightly surpassed its midpoint on Friday (yellow coordinates). It could mark a potential turning point (reversal), though it remains healthy with two reachable targets. The overnight stock market futures had a fairly significant gap down to start the week's first session and it remains to be seen how this will affect gold stocks.

 Physical gold hit a new high in the overnight session and then tumbled close to $60 before recovering and is trading slightly higher than Friday's close as of 6:11 am EST.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold, Gold Stocks and the S&P500

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.