Saturday, April 28, 2012
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
The Dow Holds
The Dow held a Bollinger Band midpoint and a Volume x Price bar on the weekly, which managed to stave off the bears for another day.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Mining Investors Beware
Beware, mining investors, nationalization programs could be coming soon to a theatre near you.
Argentine President to Nationalize Oil Company
Are your mining stocks really safe when sovereignty gets in the way?
There are no guarantees all those junior mining stocks in which you've invested, in all the various countries around the world, won't be subjected to the exact same thing that happened today to YPF. That is for you to decide but, clearly, Argentina is just one country of many who may have already decided that what they have is theirs, thank you very much.
It is news like this that could very likely add a premium to physical precious metals in the very near future. Mining stocks have always represented a risk, and the stakes just got higher.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Argentine President to Nationalize Oil Company
Are your mining stocks really safe when sovereignty gets in the way?
There are no guarantees all those junior mining stocks in which you've invested, in all the various countries around the world, won't be subjected to the exact same thing that happened today to YPF. That is for you to decide but, clearly, Argentina is just one country of many who may have already decided that what they have is theirs, thank you very much.
It is news like this that could very likely add a premium to physical precious metals in the very near future. Mining stocks have always represented a risk, and the stakes just got higher.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Currencies
Admittedly, this is just typical garden variety charting analysis. The fourth and fifth charts are interesting, though.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Timeframe Reversal
The dollar has made some gains against gold since last year, but minor reversals followed by significant upward trends have been the norm since 2001. Aside from 2007, where gold reversed against the dollar for about nine months, most bearish reversal timeframes have been in the five to seven month range.
Left click on chart to expand
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Looking Cautiously at a Reversal
We are once again at an extreme low on the Bullish Percent Gold Miners Index. There have been four prior reversals when the index got down to lower levels. We can see, however, that each rebound was weaker than the previous on a dollar-to-dollar basis, so there isn't much to get excited about just yet.
Left click on chart(s) to expand
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Left click on chart(s) to expand
Most precious metal stocks produced an "inside day," candle, which often heralds a reversal at the end of upward or downward trends. Coupled with a bullish wedge on the OBV chart, the conditions look favourable for a rebound here, but not the kind of set-up one should consider betting the ranch.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Gold and Gold Stocks
After a fairly upbeat reversal from the lows printed several days back, gold traded in a very tight range today. It looked as though gold traders left the office early to enjoy some April spring sun.
Gold stocks fell right back into the funk they've been in since last September: lower highs and lower lows. Gold stocks, collectively, are trading at the same levels they were during March of 2010.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Natural Gas
While a bullish wedge has been in the works on natural gas for some time now, there is still not much to get excited about: It's pretty much a train wreck.
The two dollar area may provide support, but it appears destined to break that psychological level at some point. Areas to watch for a reversal are $1.95 and $1.85. Any serious penetration of the latter number and natural gas could be well on its way to $1.35 or so.
The caveat here is if producers finally stop looking for it and shut down existing wells. They are running out of storage space and until much of the inventory is depleted there likely won't be any great turnaround for awhile. People in the industry have been talking anywhere from two to five years before natural gas rebounds. Of course, it was only six years ago we were told we'd never see low natural gas prices again.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
The two dollar area may provide support, but it appears destined to break that psychological level at some point. Areas to watch for a reversal are $1.95 and $1.85. Any serious penetration of the latter number and natural gas could be well on its way to $1.35 or so.
The caveat here is if producers finally stop looking for it and shut down existing wells. They are running out of storage space and until much of the inventory is depleted there likely won't be any great turnaround for awhile. People in the industry have been talking anywhere from two to five years before natural gas rebounds. Of course, it was only six years ago we were told we'd never see low natural gas prices again.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Markets Show Signs of Weakness
The past several days haven't been kind to stock market bulls looking for the buying spree to continue. Should this market have continued going up unabated? Really, it's amazing we've held up this long, given all the bears looking to short the mother of all tops.
A continuation of the sell-off generated on Friday's futures' action isn't necessarily all bad ... yet. There is plenty of support below; however, weakness in several sectors is starting to surface. Precious metals and the stocks within their respective sectors rebounded out of the blue yesterday, but other commodities - in particular, oil stocks - didn't follow precious metals' lead.
Left click on chart(s) to expand
This is the first reasonable pullback we've had in months on the US markets.
A promising rebound in $OIX (oil stocks) starting back in October has lost momentum and is now trading below the 200 DMA.
The overnight futures have recovered marginally, but we have generated some significant bearish impulses over the last few trading days.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
A continuation of the sell-off generated on Friday's futures' action isn't necessarily all bad ... yet. There is plenty of support below; however, weakness in several sectors is starting to surface. Precious metals and the stocks within their respective sectors rebounded out of the blue yesterday, but other commodities - in particular, oil stocks - didn't follow precious metals' lead.
Left click on chart(s) to expand
A promising rebound in $OIX (oil stocks) starting back in October has lost momentum and is now trading below the 200 DMA.
The CRB index is breaking down vs the US dollar, and is once again flirting with the 200 DMA.
The overnight futures have recovered marginally, but we have generated some significant bearish impulses over the last few trading days.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Charts into a New Week
For those who may not know, the futures were open on Good Friday. Traders weren't enthused with employment data and there was a fairly significant pullback. Unfortunately, this could have an impact on those indices and stocks come Monday morning that are only open for trading during regular hours. We won't know until we know ... the futures open for trading in 2 and a half hours and we should get a better idea then. The Dow Jones Industrials were already showing weakness at Thursday's close via a breakdown from a bearish wedge, so Friday's action on the futures market may signal further weakness. The overnight traders have some work ahead of them if they are to avoid any panic sell-off when the regular markets open Monday morning.
Left click on chart(s) to expand
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)