Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Dollar

 Just as the US dollar was finally brealing out from a cup and handle pattern, precious metals find themselves back in the game with a huge day on Friday.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Currency

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Saturday, May 19th

 Yes, it's May and all is well in the bear's gray sky world.

 No one should have been caught unaware this year, as it has become - mathematically, at least - an odds-on annual event. There were warning signs dating back to Good Friday, April 8th, when professional traders initiated a fairly significant drop in the futures markets. While it is true the markets managed to reverse course and move higher shortly thereafter, the failure to follow through with a bullish thrust after overtaking (barely) the previous high was just enough to leave buyers with cold feet.

 So here we sit: The bearish campaign is once again out in full-force with pretty much every analyst (professionals and amateurs alike) warning us that "The Big One" is finally underway.

 Good Lord, I hate May!



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Market

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Dow Holds

 The Dow held a Bollinger Band midpoint and a Volume x Price bar on the weekly, which managed to stave off the bears for another day. 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Mining Investors Beware

 Beware, mining investors, nationalization programs could be coming soon to a theatre near you.


 Argentine President to Nationalize Oil Company


 Are your mining stocks really safe when sovereignty gets in the way?


 There are no guarantees all those junior mining stocks in which you've invested, in all the various countries around the world, won't be subjected to the exact same thing that happened today to YPF. That is for you to decide but, clearly, Argentina is just one country of many who may have already decided that what they have is theirs, thank you very much.

 It is news like this that could very likely add a premium to physical precious metals in the very near future. Mining stocks have always represented a risk, and the stakes just got higher.



 Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Currencies

 Admittedly, this is just typical garden variety charting analysis. The fourth and fifth charts are interesting, though.

 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Timeframe Reversal

 The dollar has made some gains against gold since last year, but minor reversals followed by significant upward trends have been the norm since 2001. Aside from 2007, where gold reversed against the dollar for about nine months, most bearish reversal timeframes have been in the five to seven month range.

 Left click on chart to expand

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Looking Cautiously at a Reversal

 We are once again at an extreme low on the Bullish Percent Gold Miners Index. There have been four prior reversals when the index got down to lower levels. We can see, however, that each rebound was weaker than the previous on a dollar-to-dollar basis, so there isn't much to get excited about just yet.

 Left click on chart(s) to expand

 Most precious metal stocks produced an "inside day," candle, which often heralds a reversal at the end of upward or downward trends. Coupled with a bullish wedge on the OBV chart, the conditions look favourable for a rebound here, but not the kind of set-up one should consider betting the ranch.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold and Gold Stocks

 After a fairly upbeat reversal from the lows printed several days back, gold traded in a very tight range today. It looked as though gold traders left the office early to enjoy some April spring sun.

 Gold stocks fell right back into the funk they've been in since last September: lower highs and lower lows. Gold stocks, collectively, are trading at the same levels they were during March of 2010.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.