Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Indoos for February 27th

 While a "double top" is certainly a possibility, there is nothing to say we aren't already well beyond it and heading for the 13111 area on the Dow ... for starters.

 For those who like to think bigger and are capable of putting down the newspaper for five minutes ...

 Try setting your sights on Dow 13666.17

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

The Q's

 A quick look at the Q's:

 Left click on chart(s) to expand

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Don't Sell the US Short

Left click on chart(s) to expand

 Sure, the above chart is only four months, so let's go back one year ...

 Well .... how about that?

 The US Dollar and the markets rising together over both a four month and one year time frame. 

 Before we get too carried away with what could be an anomoly, it should be noted UUP (US Dollar ETF) is struggling here somewhat and it just registered a fourteen week low while breaking through a Volume by Price bar. Regardless, it is quite an interesting turn of events, considering most of us have been under the impression the markets must drop if the dollar rises.

 It has become far too convenient for far too many internet sites (and the mindless morons who follow these sites) to pile on the US, and when the majority of these technical and fundamentalist sites complete with their so-called instructive analysis have nothing more to offer us than what every other US-bashing site has to say ...

 Then we are practically coerced into listening to all the "Lady Gaga and Britney Spears" analysis and the profiteering from the, "one size fits all" corporate mindset garbage these sites lay on us.

 Just like the music we've been force-fed on the airwaves, these "bash-and-trash America" sites haven't got one single, original idea of their own.

 Sadly, most of these sites are run by nothing more than profiteering opportunists who really don't care if they're right or wrong, so long as the sheep who follow them generate revenue either through paid subscriptions or "hits" on the site.

 Americans have always been at their best when situations were at their worst.

 It would be a mistake to sell America short. 


Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

An Expensive "Free" Lunch

 Is there anything more entertaining than watching text book, retail short sellers squirm, or reading all their whining about stock market manipulation in the chat rooms, when all they really had to do was look at a chart?


 Admittedly, there have been times along the way in the last few weeks I thought the markets might pull back, but I saw no point going short, personally, aside from an occasional scalp ... and I haven't even done that lately.


 The fact is, I have been sitting on the sidelines for the better part of three weeks, watching and observing. It's been quite an eye-opening experience for me; detaching myself from short-term outcomes and instead focussing on what is actually going on in the big picture rather than chasing a few dollars on a fifteen minute scalp.


 Most newcomers don't get this. I didn't get it either, though, I wasn't thrust into a postion where I had to make money when I first started trading. That was more than four years ago.


 If you get into trading and find the need to make money over-rides the time it takes to learn and get a feel for what's really going on out there in stock market land ... I hate to tell you this, but you're pretty much already screwed.


 So, take a break if need be.


 Observe.


 Find the Zen.


 The stock market isn't going anywhere.


 It will be there with or without you. If you want to take part in the ups and downs, take the time to figure things out and have a back-up plan just in case the markets and you don't get along.


 There are multi-billion dollar hedge funds that have thrown in the towel in the last several months, simply because they couldn't get a proper read on the markets. This ... after their many years of success in the industry. Collectively, these hedge funds had some of the brightest individuals in America at their disposal. Can you compete with that kind of intellectual arsenal?


 Probably not ...


 But your advantage is that you aren't holding millions of shares at any given moment in time and you have mobility because of this. It is not so easy for large traders to simply dump millions of shares because stochastics and a trend line failed.


 Your disadvantage is in the need to make money now and perhaps not having the time nor a true appreciation to realize that there are no free lunches on Wall Street.


 I hope to post some charts later.


 Stay tuned.



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Charts for Thursday, February 23rd



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold vs Gold Stocks and the S&P 500

 Physical gold is up 20% since gold began trading in Hong Kong, yet gold stocks cannot seem to break away from the S&P 500.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold: Cup and Handle Breakout

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Commodities

 The Canadian big board was up 1.32% today, vs the relatively flat US S&P 500. Oil and gold moved sharply higher, elevating the stocks within the two sectors.

 Oil stocks seem ripe for the picking, here. There is nothing wrong with Apple, but there is no way in the world that stock should be out-performing an important commodity like oil. We should prepare ourselves for sector rotation, here, even though there is likely a little more upside to both Apple and the Tech sector. 

 

 

 

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

There's No Crying in Trading

 Just because we are closing in on spring training and it's cold here ....

 An ode to baseball.

 Although the North American exchanges were closed today, trading restraints did not apply to the overnight futures market ... and bears couldn't have liked what they saw. Another bullish move on the S&P 500 futures overtook an important target at 1362.75.

 Short sellers continue to walk up to the plate with all the cocky, arrogant swagger of a latter-day Mighty Casey.

 "The markets can't continue to go up!" say the bears.

 "The government statistics are a lie!"

 "A crash is inevitable!"

Bears can only wish they'd struck out just once

 Bearish perseverance is one thing ... the blatant refusal to acknowledge a chart (or charts) is something else entirely. 

 The 1430 area came into play on the ES today. This isn't likely to be a home run ... if we get there at all, it will probably come about by hitting singles, nickling and diming the short sellers to a slow and painful death.

S&P 500 Futures

 We're dealing with a lot of ...



 The dollar, as always, looms over the market, but this is a matter of perspective. Given the state of every other country and their currencies the world over, there is really not much point in being a dollar bear. Investors should consider the US and the US dollar as a safe haven but it extends well beyond that ... there are no hard and fast rules that say the dollar and the markets cannot work together. They have struck a harmonious chord in the past and they could very well do so again in the future.

 The Euro has re-captured some of its lost ground.

 There's no crying in baseball ... nor the stock market.

 Don't discount the gold/oil ratio or what happens to the markets when the ratio gets over-extended. Ignoring this chart could cost you a lot of money!

 As Susan Sarandon said in Bull Durham ...

 Hit 'em where they ain't!

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Another Op-X Friday

 The markets seesawed Friday in playground fashion, giving up very little real estate in the morning before closing the day only slightly higher. There is a lot of indecision (but no panic) here as we push higher and now threaten last May's highs. Volume continues to remain light as investors holding don't seem all that anxious to sell. Potential buyers, meanwhile, wonder if they're going to be left stranded at the top of the teeter-totter before those below abruptly hop off and move on to play on the swings, the slide or some other attention-grabbing apparatus.

 Clearly, the markets will need new (or former) participants if they are to push higher. There is (or should be, at least) some incentive here for Wall Street to stabilize the markets as best they can in order to get regular investors back into the market. This is not going to be an easy sell as most people remember all too well the brutal sell-off that took place from the last half of 2008 into March of 2009. Furthermore, there will be no hope whatsoever in coaxing money back into the markets if the people Wall Street are courting are left staring at psychotic charts that continually whipsaw back and forth in an algorithmic feeding frenzy.

 The irony here is that there is a very high percentage of regulars left over from the dark days of 2008 and 2009 who aren't even interested in buying as the markets move higher. Many have been trying to short the market at every perceived top, and will likely continue to do so until Wall Street has taken most of their retail bear money.

 Of course, out of all that comes one of the questions people continually ask: "Why not gold?" 

 Let's take a look at it from Wall Street's standpoint for one minute:

 If you were continually under attack by every tinfoil hat gold bug on the internet (and Lord knows there are far too many of them), why would you move so much as a single cent out of the stock market and into gold, only to support a bunch of miserable conspiracy theorists who can't stand you, your profession nor the country in which you do business?

 And what has gold done for itself that the markets have not since 1980? Perhaps you might bring this chart up with a gold bug some time as they certainly don't want you to know anything about it.

 Left click on chart(s) to expand

 There is much to consider as we move forward. I am not saying precious metals are a bad investment, in fact, I own silver bars, silver coins and a little gold, myself. The difference is ... I didn't buy any of it with the ridiculous hope the entire system will collapse and that I'll be bartering my precious metals for food, fuel or toiletries somewhere down the crazy river ...

  

    

 Here are some charts ...

 There still isn't really much point in being a bear, but I'll leave that up to you.

 The S&P 500 futures may not be done yet ... I'm still watching 1362.75 but any significant break of that and we'll likely be headed to the 1430's soon enough.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.