E-Mini S&P (NEXT!)

 With 1186 out of the way, is it too much to suggest 1190?

US Home Builders

US Banks

E-Mini S&P

 Those trading (ie in control of) the overnight futures session will do what they can to keep the morning's opening session as much of a guessing game as possible, but here is a bullish scenario. A bearish target to keep in mind is the 1165 area.

*** At 8:02 EST the futures surpassed the 1186 target, albeit it on flat line mode for the most part since the inital drive up to that mark. ***

A Common (and criminal) Scenario

 Don't hold your breath waiting for an investigation to be launched on yet another fine example of choreographed trading by big players who are not held accountable for their criminal actions.

Trade Idea (IE.TO)

 Ivanhoe Energy broke upward and outside of its cup and handle pattern in Friday's trading on strong (though not abnormal) volume. It closed near its high of the day and there is enough optimism in the pattern to suggest a move to the $3.15 or $3.20 area. A move above that may take some time, however, as there is about four months of inventory sitting above these levels. Buying on a pullback would be preferable. Perform your own due diligence. 

E-Mini S&P

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 It "looks" like the futures want to go higher, but they are stuck in a zone that could go either way. 

E-Mini S&P

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 The ES E-Mini is battling a pinpoint as I write this. A decisive breach could send the futures as low as 1170.

E-Mini S&P

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 Upward trend line is intact on the overnight market. Stay tuned. We are going up or down from here. It's black or white.

Where's the Separation?

 When will gold over-power the stock market?

 If one goes strictly by technical analysis, the answer seems to be ....

 Not anytime soon.

 Six charts and six time frames on physical gold vs the stock market over the past twenty months.

 Click on chart(s) to expand



E-Mini S&P

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Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3



 Because the E-Mini S and P trades more hours in a day, it is more accurate to use this for day trading. The SPY is fine for daily analysis, but for intra-day purposes, there are situations and pivots that set up on the overnight futures that SPY cannot track.

 Chart 1 shows the futures trading slightly above both a shorter-term Andrew's Pitchfork and a longer term pitchfork. Theoretically, the futures should come down to meet the lower line of the longer of the two pitchfork patterns at some point, but would have to breach the pinpoint pivot at 1172 (Chart 2, bearish pattern).

 If the pinpoint pivot holds and the ES bounces, we can expect 1178.25 and perhaps as much as 1189.50 (Chart 3).

 Of note is that this is the only bearish pattern the ES has right now, not withstanding a pattern dating back to the 30th of April.

Spiders

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 SPY is at somewhat of a crossroads here, with a bearish wedge and an ascending channel converging with the median line of an Andrew's Pitchfork. Many technical analysts have been shouting "PULLBACK!" for some time, but it's been a painful ride up for them if they got ahead of themselves and shorted the markets too soon. The markets have made fools out of a lot of bearish investors relying on either technical or fundamental data to make their decisions. Have we reached the point where the bulls are afraid to buy and the bears are afraid to short? It can be argued that either option has its drawbacks. There is something to be said about day trading against the High Frequency Traders (aka Algorythm Programs) in this environment: sleep comes a lot easier when closing one's positions at day's end.

GDX

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  GDX broke down outside a bearish wedge this past week. It appears more likely this would be attributed to selling the old fashioned way: profit taking. Short positions remain exceptionally light on the top ten holdings that make up much of the GDX (short positions listed by company below).

  Whatever can be said about quantitative easing, if any of that money has been allocated in order to keep the stock market afloat, it is difficult to determine how much of that money is actually making its way into gold equities. While GDX has clearly out-performed the S & P 500 over the past six months (even with this past week's sell-off), it is still lagging SPY over one year and twenty month (rally's length) periods (charts below).

 This once again leaves in question precious metal equities' ability to maintain their strength in the event of an overall market sell-off. Many of the larger institutions don't seem to be onboard when it comes to investing in gold equities, and if that assumption is correct, it could be awhile before we see the GDX pull away from the markets. And it really won't be "pulling away" if the stocks making up the GDX can only manage to fall at a lesser rate than the markets in general,  should we see a formidable correction in the markets.

 It should be noted that there is still plenty of money flowing into the juniors, as can be evidenced by the Canadian Venture Exchange. It has gone almost straight up since the middle of July, so investors are still willing to spend money on gold stocks, they've just opted to invest in the opportunity for a home run, and many of the junior PM's have done exactly that: performed like Babe Ruth over the past few months.

Canadian Venture Exchange

Sugarland - Stuck Like Glue

Gold Won't Save Your Soul

 ***There's a bottom fishing opportunity using GLD at $131.07 (09:00 EST) Set a tight stop.***

S&P Futures

 

 A bullish pattern to keep an aye on. If time permits, I'll post a downside target, but this upside pattern will have to play itself out first before I can post any type of forecast. 1177 - 1177.25 is a potential reversal area. Through there with any authority and shortsellers could be in some trouble.

Oil

S&P Futures

 This is a choppy pattern and you shouldn't bet the farm on its accuracy, but it looks like we're on our way to at least 1180 on the futures.

The Dollar

A Song for the Bears

Trade Idea (VT.TO)

 Left click to expand company description or charts.

 Aside from the short-term MACD (which I would prefer were a little more cooperative), the chart is optimistic and broke through resistance on Friday on good volume. Agricultural stocks are moving, and I see no reason why Viterra would be left behind.

 Perform your own due dilligence.

End of Week Charts

Gold and the 50 DMA