Saturday, April 30, 2011

When the Walls Come Tumbling Down




 Maybe the three trend lines (orange, blue and yellow) converging here will be enough to put a temporary halt to the dollar's slide.




If trend lines aren't enough, Bollinger Bands are at their downside limits, as well.







 Twenty year time frames, the Indoos and the US dollar. Has the dollar bottomed and the market topped? The trillion dollar question. Stay tuned.

Trade 'til May?


If new highs are the precursor to new highs, the Spiders, gold and silver, theoretically, at least, have more upside.

SPY



 The markets may need a rest, however, when examining the Bollinger Bands. The candles have broken outside the top band and are dangerously over-extended. That said, silver has been pushing the upper limits of the band since February, and there's only been one minor retreat, back to the Bollinger Band's mid-point.





SILVER



 Gold, too, is over-extended, but seems to have found some harmoney within the Bollinger Band's confines leading up to its latest run.


GOLD



Gold Miners





Silver Miners



The way the markets trade these days, it is not uncommon to see most things hit a top or bottom around the same time. And while the indices and precious metals could definitely use a breather, there are no guarantees that will happen any time soon.

The markets have been anything but kind to those in search of a top. Just think, though ..... with April over and done with, and Bollinger Bands being pierced, the "Trade 'til May then go away," crowd is right around the corner.


Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Friday, April 29, 2011

A Big Difference



 Horizons BetaPro Global Gold Plus ETF has performed terribly at times vs the US GDX, particularly when examining the four year, three year, and one year time frames.  

 Click on chart(s) to expand






 Not taken into account in the above chart is currency differential, but at HGU's peak, the Canadian Dollar was trading roughly where it is sitting today.


 If three years ago you had invested $10,000 into HGU.TO on a buy-and-hold basis, what would it be worth today? It's not pretty.




Now, let's compare HGU.TO to an "ordinary" TD precious metal mutual fund over the same three years:





A gain of $6,400 for TD vs a loss of $2,050 with HGU.

To be fair, HGU has out-performed the TD Fund from the lows the two printed in 2008; nevertheless, any potential pullbacks in PM shares will likely see HGU hit harder than the average PM mutual fund.

ETF's have their place, but they've been designed for momentum traders. Without velocity behind these double ETF's, they simply don't perform efficiently nor effectively. It's all there in Horizon's company prospectus, by the way. They aren't out to mislead anyone; unfortunately, most people don't read a prospectus nor research the pros and cons of juiced ETF's.



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Spiders on Target

 The first of three potential targets on the SPY mentioned here a few days back  as well as here  in January, was finally hit and surpassed by four cents just before today's close. Now we'll see what this market is made of. If we don't pull back with any emphasis over the next day, we may see further upside, but it's not a bad opportunity to try shorting here with a tight stop. This could be "the elusive top" everyone has been waiting for, after all.



**Update** While a short here is tempting, the overnight futures market is showing no signs of weakness. Caution is necessary.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Does the Buck Stop Here?




 It doesn't look like it. A market reversal will help the dollar, but until that happens, don't bank on a bottom.

 
Left cick on chart to expand





Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Friday, April 22, 2011

Silver vs the Markets



 Silver lagged the rally for almost a year and a half but caught up in a big hurry. Are we closing in on a top? That depends who you listen to. Analysts can't seem to form any kind of consensus.


Silver vs SPY



The simplest argument would suggest that silver is running away from three trend lines, both the 50 and 200 EMA's and that it HAS to pull back. Well, no, it doesn't have to do anything of the sort. It could carry on higher, and it looks like it has the room to do so. $49 is not out of reach nor impossible.

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Gold vs the Markets




 Gold bulls are left to wonder why their stocks and physical holdings are doing no better than the S&P 500 since the market rally began more than two years ago.



GDX vs SPY




Gold vs SPY







Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

SPY Targets


 $136.25 could have some serious stopping power; however, with the Dow making new highs the potential is there for a thrust above this important level on the S&P 500.

Left click on chart(s) to expand.



If the above target is exceeded with any real strength, don't be surprised if the bears once again go running for cover as another short squeeze is generated. This is an exceptionally important psychological barrier for bulls and bears alike. At stake is both a new beginning or an abrupt end to this rally.















Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.
Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

New Highs for the Indoos

The Dow hit a new high today, unfettered by Monday's news of an S&P downgrade to the US.

Left click on chart to expand.

This opens the door for more upside as the markets continue to punish fundamental bears.



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

A Bear's Worst Nightmare

 You never know ..... the pattern works.



Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Friday, April 15, 2011

SLV

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Saturday, April 9, 2011


Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.