Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Bearish Technicals? What Bearish "Technicals?"



 Manipulation on the markets? Sure there is, and this is nothing new going back eighty or ninety years. Charles Dow may have been the pioneer behind Dow theory, but later on, S.A. Nelson and William Hamilton refined it:


* The first assumption is: The manipulation of the primary trend is not possible. When large amounts of money are at stake, the temptation to manipulate is bound to be present. Hamilton did not argue against the possibility that speculators, specialists or anyone else involved in the markets could manipulate the prices. He qualified his assumption by asserting that it was not possible to manipulate the primary trend. Intraday, day-to-day and possibly even secondary movements could be prone to manipulation. These short movements, from a few hours to a few weeks, could be subject to manipulation by large institutions, speculators, breaking news or rumors. Today, Hamilton would likely add message boards and day-traders to this list.


 "Manipulation of the primary trend is not possible." 

 What is the primary trend?

 That would depend if you are bull or bear.








Bulls are Continually Under Attack on the Internet


 What is the primary trend of the US dollar? Gold? The stock market?


 Deciding which is doing what is a matter of interpretation.


 Technical bulls will view the primary trend of the stock market as, "up." This bias will be reflected in their charts.

 Technical bears will view the primary trend as, "down." Unlike bulls, however (who pretty much seem to stick to charts), most bears seem to back their "technicals" with an arsenal of bad news. The bear's bias, technically speaking, has been corrupted by whatever, "the world is coming to an end" internet site they choose to read, in which case they'd probably be better off leaving charts out of the equation altogether. Aside from the occasional downstroke, their charts have been wrong for almost three years running, after all, though they do deserve some credit for their "technical" perseverance.


 Grab a chair, bears, you're probably going to need it.












Always perform your own due diligence. These are only my opinions.